The Associated Press Top 25 poll is out. For once, polls will not have a direct impact on who gets to play in the championship. Instead, a committee will meet to determine the best teams.
Now that the polls don't matter, I thought it would be fun to figure out the most overrated and underrated teams in the BCS era. I couldn't find receiving votes in the AP poll prior to 2003, so this will just focus on the last 11 seasons.
To compile the most overrated team in college football, I compared the preseason AP Top 25 poll with the final poll (after the bowls). The team with the greatest discrepancies in the polls are either overrated or underrated. To calculate this I took each team's percentage of possible votes for each preseason and postseason poll because there are differing amount of voters each year.
I've included all teams in current Power Five conferences, plus Notre Dame, BYU, Boise State, Cincinnati and Connecticut.
Let's get right to it.
If we were to conduct an AP Top 25 based on the preseason polls from the last 11 seasons, with 1600 maximum points (64 voters), it would look like this (2014 not included):
1. Oklahoma 1279
2. Ohio State 1164
3. Southern California 1150
4. LSU 1112
5. Texas 1098
6. Georgia 927
7. Florida 920
8. Virginia Tech 755
9. Florida State 747
10. Alabama 720
11. Michigan 706
12. Oregon 619
13. West Virginia 557
14. Auburn 546
15. Miami 539
16. Wisconsin 507
17. Boise State 421
18. Tennessee 376
19. Nebraska 373
20. Louisville 370
21. Clemson 370
22. TCU 360
23. California 334
24. Notre Dame 332
25. Iowa 324
Receiving Votes: Oklahoma State 320, South Carolina 313, Stanford 276, Texas A&M 273, Penn State 256, Arkansas 247, Kansas State 220, Missouri 202, Pittsburgh 181, Michigan State 143, Ole Miss 141, Arizona State 138, Georgia Tech 128, Virginia 125, Purdue 123, Texas Tech 119, Utah 97, Maryland 96, UCLA 87, BYU 86, NC State 80, Kansas 76, Washington 70, North Carolina 68, Rutgers 62, Oregon State 58, Illinois 53, Boston College 36, Wake Forest 24, Northwestern 20, Cincinnati 19, Minnesota 16, Baylor 10, Colorado 6, Connecticut 4.1, Arizona 3.6, Washington State 2.3, Vanderbilt 2.1, Iowa State 1.9, Mississippi State 0.5, Kentucky 0.1.
None of Top 10 is the least bit surprising, although I was a little at how low Oregon is. Indiana, Syracuse and Duke did not receive a single vote.
On the flip-side, if we were to conduct an AP Top 25 based on the postseason polls from the last 11 seasons, it would look like this (same scale):
1. Ohio State 1083
2. LSU 1040
3. Southern California 984
4. Oklahoma 953
5. Alabama 849
6. Texas 809
7. Oregon 757
8. Boise State 732
9. Georgia 710
10. Florida 673
11. Auburn 661
12. Virginia Tech 576
13. TCU 541
14. Florida State 493
15. Stanford 454
16. Michigan 436
17. Wisconsin 426
18. Louisville 414
19. West Virginia 410
20. Penn State 365
21. Utah 350
22. Iowa 344
23. Oklahoma State 341
24. South Carolina 338
25. Missouri 329
Receiving Votes: Clemson 305, Michigan State 300, Notre Dame 293, Miami 284, Arkansas 270, Tennessee 237, Kansas State 221, Cincinnati 216, BYU 214, Nebraska 208, Texas Tech 207, Texas A&M 205, Boston College 196, Ole Miss 182, California 173, Baylor 160, UCLA 134, Arizona State 119, Kansas 117, Oregon State 117, Georgia Tech 96, Washington State 95, Pittsburgh 87, Rutgers 84, Maryland 67, Mississippi State 58, Wake Forest 54, Northwestern 49, Purdue 48, Illinois 40, Minnesota 33, Vanderbilt 29, Virginia 24, Duke 18, NC State 13, Washington 11, Kentucky 5, Connecticut 2.7, Colorado 1.2, Arizona 1.0.
North Carolina, Iowa State, Syracuse, and Indiana did not receive a vote, with the latter two not receiving a vote in the preseason poll either. North Carolina actually received points in the preseason poll five seasons, but did not perform well enough to finish with any after the postseason. Iowa State only had 21 preseason points, so their lack of getting any after the season isn't a big dissappointment.
From these two polls, we can figure out the most overrated and underrated teams in FBS football.
Top 10 most overrated teams:
1. Oklahoma -327
2. Texas -288
3. Michigan -270
4. Miami -255
5. Florida State -254
6. Florida -248
7. Georgia -217
8. Virginia Tech -179
9. Southern California -165
10. Nebraska -165
These schools are strong brands. Half of these teams actually finished in the Top 10 in the postseason poll. Miami, Michigan, Florida State and Nebraska finished outside the Top 10, but all have historically great programs.
Top 10 most underrated teams:
1. Boise State +311
2. Utah +253
3. Cincinnati +197
4. TCU +180
5. Stanford +178
6. Boston College +160
7. Michigan State +157
8. Baylor +151
9. Oregon +137
10. Alabama +129
The top four teams from this list played in a non-major conference during at least part of the observed period. Utah and TCU currently play in big conferences, but they haven't found the same success. The main reason Cincinnati is so high on the list is because of its 2009 season, one which it entered the bowls undefeated. Stanford is the first team from this list that has spent the 11 years in a power conference.
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