You’ve probably heard about the Super Bowl hangover. The myth is that teams playing in the big game ultimately flop the next season. There are a variety of reasons cited, the most common one being it's too expensive to hang on to players in the salary cap era.
I decided to test the post-Super Bowl dropoff theory by using data from all the first 47 Super Bowls. We'll see how the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos do this season.
And off we go ...
Excluding last year’s game, Super Bowl participants won at a 78.4% clip in the regular season (the champs did slightly better than the losers). The following season, those same teams averaged a 65.5% winning percentage.
Over a 16 game schedule, the difference in percentages translates into an average of 2.06 more games won by the Super Bowl participant in the year of the run than the year after. I also found that the year preceding the Super Bowl run, teams had a 66.8% winning percentage, slightly above the year before.
Of the 94 teams to make the Super Bowl, 29 (30.9%) did not make the playoffs the following season. Spaced out over the 16 game schedule, 34% had a winning percentage lost three more games the following season.
There's definitely some evidence that a Super Bowl hangover occurs, but the majority of teams still have solid seasons. The median win-loss record for the teams the next season is 11-5. It's nearly impossible to sustain long-term success at this level unless a team has a Hall of Fame quarterback, like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.
Hometown curse?
To this day, no team has won a Super Bowl in its own stadium, sparking speculation about another jinx - the hometown curse.
Teams that have hosted a Super Bowl won just 44.1% of their games in the regular season, with the median at 43.8% (7-9).
The San Francisco 49ers were the closest to win one at home, winning Super Bowl XIX at Stanford, maybe 45 minutes away from Candlestick. The Los Angeles Rams lost a Super Bowl in Pasadena, roughly half an hour away from the Coliseum.
Most of the games have taken place in Florida (15), Southern California (10) and New Orleans (10). Florida is broken down into Miami (10), Tampa Bay (4) and Jacksonville (1). Southern California is as follows: Pasadena (5), San Diego (3) and Los Angeles (2).
Of the 51 hosts, just 16 teams were above .500 in the regular season and recorded double-digit wins nine times. Last season, 11 teams (34.3%) had double-digit wins in the regular season.
I know what you're thinking. Historically, the New Orleans Saints have stunk and their appearances are dragging down the rest of the hosts. Well, even excluding the Saints, the rest of the hosts won at a 46.8% clip.
Teams that have hosted a Super Bowl won just 44.1% of their games in the regular season, with the median at 43.8% (7-9).
The San Francisco 49ers were the closest to win one at home, winning Super Bowl XIX at Stanford, maybe 45 minutes away from Candlestick. The Los Angeles Rams lost a Super Bowl in Pasadena, roughly half an hour away from the Coliseum.
Most of the games have taken place in Florida (15), Southern California (10) and New Orleans (10). Florida is broken down into Miami (10), Tampa Bay (4) and Jacksonville (1). Southern California is as follows: Pasadena (5), San Diego (3) and Los Angeles (2).
Of the 51 hosts, just 16 teams were above .500 in the regular season and recorded double-digit wins nine times. Last season, 11 teams (34.3%) had double-digit wins in the regular season.
I know what you're thinking. Historically, the New Orleans Saints have stunk and their appearances are dragging down the rest of the hosts. Well, even excluding the Saints, the rest of the hosts won at a 46.8% clip.
Note: I counted the Raiders and Rams as host teams when it was in Pasadena, when those teams were located in Los Angeles even though it wasn't their home stadium because of the close proximity between the two cities. I also counted the 49ers and Stanford's.
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