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Monday, September 8, 2014

Losing the first NFL game is like any other week, but 0-2 is panic time

Attention Packers, Saints, Bears, Patriots, Ravens, Colts and Cowboys fans it's not panic time yet. 

You're all 0-1. History shows us that plenty of 0-1 teams still make the postseason. Here are the numbers from the past decade. 

1-0 start: 53.75% reach postseason
0-1 start: 21.25%

It's not a surprise that 1-0 teams fare better than 0-1 counterparts given that it generally takes 10 wins to make the playoffs. Teams that go to the postseason (last five years) fared 31% better on average over the regular season than the teams that miss out. 

When we look at the first week's results, we're just singling out one piece to the puzzle. Looking at other weeks in the regular season yields similar results. I randomly picked a team's ninth game to explore. Results from past decade: 

Wins Ninth Game: 51.25% reach postseason
Loses Ninth Game: 23.42%

So the ninth game of the season means almost as much as the first game. The 2.5% difference is negligible. (There was also a tie in 2012, so the sample size is 318 teams for the ninth game). The bottom line is it hurts to lose any NFL game, regardless of the week. 

If a team begins the season on a losing streak, then it's officially time to panic. It should also be noted that it's not time to celebrate by starting the season strong. I ran the numbers from the same past decade (2004-2013), to include the second game. 

2-0 start: 61.90% reach postseason
1-1 start: 40.79%
0-2 start: 7.14%

Beyond the second week, only three teams have ever made the postseason starting 0-3, and none in the past decade. 

Those teams: Chargers in 1992, Lions in 1995, and Bills in 1998. Only those Chargers escaped from an 0-4 hole, although the Steelers (0-4 to 8-8) nearly pulled off the feat last year. And even the 2013 Steelers would have had one of the worst records to ever make the postseason. 

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